🔗 Share this article Countering Europe's National Populists: Protecting the Less Well-Off from the Winds of Transformation More than a year following the election that delivered Donald Trump a clear-cut return victory, the Democratic party has yet to issued its postmortem analysis. But, last week, an influential liberal advocacy organization published its own. Kamala Harris's campaign, its authors contended, failed to connect with core constituencies because it did not focus enough on tackling everyday financial worries. By prioritising the threat to democracy that Maga authoritarianism represented, liberals neglected the kitchen-table concerns that were uppermost in many people’s minds. A Warning for Europe As the EU braces for a turbulent era of politics between now and the end of the decade, that is a message that needs to be fully understood in Brussels, Paris and Berlin. The White House, as its newly released national security strategy indicates, is optimistic that “patriotic” parties in Europe will quickly replicate Mr Trump’s success. Within Europe's core nations, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) and Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) top the polls, supported by significant segments of working-class voters. Yet among establishment politicians and parties, it is difficult to see a strategy that is sufficient to challenging times. Era-Defining Problems and Costly Solutions The challenges Europe faces are expensive and historic. They include the war in Ukraine, maintaining the momentum of the green transition, dealing with demographic change and developing economies that are less vulnerable to pressure by Mr Trump and China. According to a European research institute, the new age of geopolitical insecurity could require an additional €250bn in yearly EU defence spending. A major report last year on European economic competitiveness called for substantial investment in public goods, to be partly funded by jointly held EU debt. Such a fiscal paradigm shift would stimulate growth figures that have stagnated for years. But, at both the pan-European and national levels, there remains a lack of boldness when it comes to generating funds. The EU’s so-called “frugal” nations resist the idea of shared debt, and Brussels’ budget proposals for the next seven years are profoundly timid. In France, the idea of a wealth tax is widely supported with voters. But the beleaguered centrist government – while desperate to cut its budget deficit – will not consider such a move. The Price of Political Paralysis The truth is that without such measures, the less well-off will pay the price of fiscal tightening through austerity budgets and increased inequality. Bitter recent conflicts over retirement reforms in both France and Germany highlight a growing battle over the future of the European social model – a trend that the RN and the AfD have happily exploited to promote a politics of welfare chauvinism. Ms Le Pen’s party, for example, has resisted moves to raise the retirement age and has said that it would target any benefit cuts at foreign residents. Avoiding a Political Gift for Populists In the US, Mr Trump’s pledges to protect blue‑collar interests were largely insincere, as later healthcare reductions and tax breaks for the wealthy underlined. But without a compelling progressive alternative from the Harris campaign, they worked on the campaign trail. Absent a fundamental change in fiscal policy, social contracts across the continent risk being ripped up. Governments must steer clear of giving this electoral boon to the Trumpian forces already on the rise in Europe.